Bharatiya Janata Party's electoral fortunes in the southern state of Karnataka is unlikely to see brighter days in near future even with the return of once party strongman and former chief minister BS Yeddyurappa. In an ironic twist of destiny it was Yeddyurappa, who led the saffron unit to victory for the first time in 2008, had to resign as chief minister over allegations of corruption and quit the party later. The BJP miserably failed to fill the vacuum created after Yeddyurappa's exit allowing Congress to win the Assembly elections. Now the lotus, BJP's poll symbol, also stares at a defeat in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

Karnataka, which has 28 seats in Lok Sabha, will go to the Congress kitty with the party likely to win 10-18 seats if elections are held in the third week of January, a survey based on the Lokniti-IBN National Tracker conducted this month said. The BJP is projected to get between 6-10 seats while Janata Dal (Secular) may win 4-8. The BJP may take some solace from the fact that its vote share has gone up from 20 to 32 percent between July last year and January this year while for the Congress it has fallen to 42 from 47 percent. For JD(S), the vote share has reached 18 percent from 15 percent within the same period. Congress discovers a star in Siddaramaiah The Congress government in the state under Chief Minister Siddaramaiah is facing little anti-incumbancy mostly because of people's anger with the UPA 2 government at the Centre under Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. This is reflected with 36 percent of the sample studied wanting the Congress government in the state to return while in July 2013, 47 percent preferred the same. This trend is witnessed even though there is a high degree of liking for the state government.

Congress discovers a star in Siddaramaiah The Congress government in the state under Chief Minister Siddaramaiah is facing little anti-incumbancy mostly because of people's anger with the UPA 2 government at the Centre under Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. This is reflected with 36 percent of the sample studied wanting the Congress government in the state to return while in July 2013, 47 percent preferred the same. This trend is witnessed even though there is a high degree of liking for the state government.

While in 2013, 55 percent were satisfied with the state government, in 2014 the number shot up to 71 percent with a sample size of 830 individuals. In a similar poll that was conducted in July 2013 the sample size was 817. In the last six months, the chief minister's popularity has also gone up to 76 percent. Schemes like Anna Bhagya and Ksheera Bhagya about which 94 and83 perecnt have heard respectively also worked in favour of the state government. Among the sample, 46 percent felt that the present Congress government was better while 21 percent voted in favour of the previous BJP government. Although soon after the Assembly elections in 2013, 50 percent preferred a UPA government at the Centre but this seems to be shrinking with 49 percent in 2014 voting against it while only 33 percent wants a UPA 3.

No BJP MPs, but Narendra Modi as prime minister Despite Siddaramaiah's steller performance in the state, the electorate in Karnataka undoubtedly wants Narendra Modi as the next prime minister although it is not comfortable with BJP MPs representing them in the Lower House. As compared to the last survey, the support for Modi as prime minister has jumped a whopping 20 percent from 8 to 28 percent. With Prime Minister Singh opting out of a third stint, support for Rahul Gandhi has gone up a mere 1 percent from 18 o 19 percent between July to January. Congress president Sonia Gandhi is also witnessing the same phenomenon with support for her climbing 1 percent from 13 to 14 percent within the same period.

Is Yeddyurappa a mere baggage from the past for BJP? Yeddyurappa's exit from the BJP was dramatic and he had achieved what he wanted to by ruining the party's prospects in the Assembly polls. But perhaps what he did not anticipate was that the perils of the BJP will prolong than he wanted the party to suffer. Now even after the former chief minister's return to his parent party, there is hardly any impact on ground. A well-functioning Congress government in the state has only complicated matters for the BJP. The dislike for Yeddyurappa is apparent within BJP as 37 percent of its members oppose his return. Among all the respondents 50 percent are against his return to the BJP. The traditional support for Yeddyurappa among the Lingayat community has also taken a hit. Of the sample surveyed within this community, 51 percent do not want him back in the BJP. Among all those surveyed, 43 percent felt that he is just a liability for the BJP.


The JD(S) tangle -- to tie-up or not to tie-up? Former prime minister HD Deve Gowda's JD(S) is in a bit of political dilemma whether it should go alone in the Lok Sabha polls or forge an alliance either with the Congress and BJP. The party has only one seat in the 15th Lok Sabha which is held by its president Deve Gowda. While 56 percent of the sample wants the regional outfit to go solo, 40 percent of those who want it to go for an alliance prefers to partner with Congress. Another 35 percent wants it to join the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance.

Source: Firstpost